The Phenomenon of Collision with Reality

The phenomenon of "Collision with Reality" has a name 

“The Carnoustie Effect is the degree of mental and psychic shock experienced on collision with reality by those whose expectations are founded on false assumptions.”

The phrase emerged after the 1999 Open Championship at Carnoustie, when the world’s best players, many of whom were used to manicured and relatively windless courses, were frustrated by the unexpected difficulties of the Carnoustie links golf course. On the other hand, the 'local players' faced no such difficulty since it was 'normal' for them. 

This being a psychological term, it applies to disillusionment in any area of life, not just golf.

I came across the term "CARNOUSTIE Effect" back in 2021 and it keeps coming back to me in different contexts time and again.

In fact, it is a remarkably accurate description of what happens to Leaders and Founders.

A senior hire looks ideal.

A team is assumed to be aligned.

A new market seems attractive.

A funding round appears almost certain.

A product launch is expected to succeed.

A strategy looks compelling in the boardroom.

A transformation programme appears perfectly planned.

And then... Expectations have a Collision with Reality

The market shifts.

Employees resist.

Cash runs tighter than forecast.

The leadership team is not aligned.

The “obvious” strategy does not work.

Customers do not behave as expected.

Execution capability turns out to be weaker.

The problem in almost all these situations is that the assumptions about reality were never sufficiently challenged.

And this becomes particularly acute 

as you become more and more senior.

Seniority creates an unintended insulation 

from the ground reality and unsaid issues.

People become careful about disagreeing.

Confidence gets mistaken for certainty.

Past success becomes evidence 

Assumptions get repeated.

Bad news gets softened.

This is where the Carnoustie Effect becomes a leadership issue.

The shock does not come merely 

from circumstances going wrong.

It comes from discovering that the 

operating mental model was wrong.

For a Founder or CEO, 

that collision can be expensive.

Financially. Strategically. Organizationally. 

And sometimes personally.

Hence, a valuable discipline of Leadership is better assumption testing & challenging.

- What are our assumptions? 

- What's the source of these assumptions? 

- What evidence would prove us wrong?

- What are our potential blind spots?

- Who disagrees with us? and Why? 

This is also one of the less understood roles of an #ExecutiveCoach

The coach creates a space where assumptions can be examined without organisational politics, hierarchy or the pressure to appear certain.

A good coach can ....

Ask the uncomfortable question that others hesitate to ask.

Challenge the story behind the strategy.

Separate evidence from optimism.

Test interpretations.

Surface blind spots.

The Coach helps the leader distinguish between:

- What I know 

- What I believe 

- What I assume 

- And what I merely hope.

Sometimes the most valuable outcome of an executive coaching conversation is discovering that the question or the assumption underneath it was wrong.

Leadership Maturity is not about 

avoiding every collision with reality. 

That would be impossible.

Leadership Maturity is about 

reducing the distance between 

our assumptions and reality 

before the collision becomes expensive.

The Carnoustie Effect.

Still one of the most vivid descriptions I have encountered of what happens when expectation meets reality. And perhaps a phrase that deserves far more airtime in boardrooms.

Question for You: What assumptions in your business or leadership are currently being treated as facts?

#Leadership #ExecutiveCoaching #Founders #CEOs #LeadershipDevelopment #DecisionMaking #BlindSpots #Strategy #Entrepreneurship #UncomfortableCoach